In national polls of party preferences, aren’t only those with land lines phoned? The majority of 18 to 24 year-olds use cell phones, so any data generated by Ipsos Reid, EKOS, Nanos, or other research firms may be less accurate than it seems to indicate.
If the youth vote doubles from 2008, I think it’s likely an NDP or Liberal minority. If the youth vote triples, an NDP or Liberal majority.
If one looks at various vote mob websites, even though they say they are “non-partisan”, you sometimes see links to articles critical of the Conservatives, but rarely, if ever, a link to articles critical of the Liberals, NDP or Greens. Ditto for opinion pieces posted on university student websites such as UVic's student newspaper, The Martlet (www.martlet.ca/sections/opinions/)
And if you research the backgrounds of those organizing vote mobs, many have been actively involved in issues associated with the progressive side of the political spectrum.
There is speculation as to what percentage of those participating in vote mobs will actually vote, but the youth vote has been vastly underestimated by the pundits and the pollsters.
The youth vote may in fact be the “sleeper” component of this election.
In national polls of party preferences, aren’t only those with land lines phoned? The majority of 18 to 24 year-olds use cell phones, so any data generated by Ipsos Reid, EKOS, Nanos, or other research firms may be less accurate than it seems to indicate.
ReplyDeleteIf the youth vote doubles from 2008, I think it’s likely an NDP or Liberal minority. If the youth vote triples, an NDP or Liberal majority.
If one looks at various vote mob websites, even though they say they are “non-partisan”, you sometimes see links to articles critical of the
Conservatives, but rarely, if ever, a link to articles critical of the Liberals, NDP or Greens. Ditto for opinion pieces posted on university student websites such as UVic's student newspaper, The Martlet
(www.martlet.ca/sections/opinions/)
And if you research the backgrounds of those organizing vote mobs, many have been actively involved in issues associated with the progressive side of the political spectrum.
There is speculation as to what percentage of those participating in vote mobs will actually vote, but the youth vote has been vastly underestimated by the pundits and the pollsters.
The youth vote may in fact be the “sleeper” component of this election.